Shinde’s Delhi Dash Raises Questions About Stability Within Maha Govt

Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s sudden visit to Delhi on the occasion of Guru Purnima has sparked a wave of political speculation. While the official reason cited was to pay respects to party elders and meet top BJP leaders as part of the Guru Purnima tradition, the timing, optics, and undercurrents of the visit suggest that Shinde may be seeking reinforcement and reassurance amid rising internal pressure and a shifting political landscape.

The trip comes at a moment of mounting strain—the Supreme Court’s sharp observations on the 2022 Shiv Sena split, waning grassroots support, and increasing assertiveness by Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis. Against this backdrop, Shinde’s Delhi outreach looks less ceremonial and more strategic.

A Visit Framed as Tradition

Guru Purnima, a Hindu festival dedicated to spiritual and political mentors, offered Shinde the perfect cover for his visit. Sources close to his camp say he planned to meet top BJP figures, including Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP president J.P. Nadda, to “seek blessings” and discuss current developments.

On the surface, such a visit may seem benign—even symbolic. But in India’s deeply performative political theatre, symbolism often masks survival strategy. And Shinde’s visit—just ahead of a potential cabinet reshuffle and local body polls—may be about shoring up his authority more than paying homage.

The Supreme Court Shadow

One cannot ignore the backdrop of the Supreme Court’s observations in the case surrounding the 2022 Shiv Sena split. While the apex court stopped short of disqualifying Shinde and his MLAs, it did deliver a moral blow by terming the Speaker's actions and the defection "constitutionally questionable."

This verdict, though not legally fatal, has politically emboldened the Uddhav Thackeray faction, which has now started reasserting its claim over the Sena’s ideological space and organizational depth. Shinde’s leadership, once protected by legal ambiguity, is now being challenged both inside and outside the party.

The Delhi dash, in this light, can be read as a search for political insurance—a reaffirmation of his status within the BJP-led alliance and a signal to his detractors that the central leadership still backs him.

Fadnavis Factor: Ally or Rival?

Shinde’s calculations are also complicated by the resurgent stature of Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who has emerged as the de facto power center in the Maharashtra government.

Over the past year, Fadnavis has been actively controlling key portfolios, engaging in direct outreach to grassroots workers, and managing the BJP’s electoral machinery in the state. His high command backing is well known, and some within the Shinde camp privately concede that the CM’s authority is being slowly eroded.

In this context, Shinde’s Delhi visit may be an attempt to remind the BJP brass that he still matters, that he commands a loyal MLAs bloc, and that undermining him could fracture the fragile alliance ahead of the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections.

Tensions Within the Shinde Sena

Internally, Shinde is facing unease within his camp. Several of the MLAs who defected from Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and rallied behind him are worried about their political future.

They had gambled on survival, cabinet positions, and a share in the BJP’s organizational power. But with many still denied ministerial berths, and with Thackeray regaining sympathy and narrative strength, some in the Shinde faction are reportedly feeling directionless and vulnerable.

The upcoming Maharashtra Legislative Council and local body polls will be the first real test of strength for the Shinde-led Sena. Any underperformance could hasten defections and rebellion within.

Thus, Shinde’s Delhi visit could also be a way to bargain for political rewards—more cabinet positions, stronger financial backing, and a public show of support from the BJP’s top brass.

BJP’s Dilemma: Managing a Delicate Coalition

The BJP, meanwhile, finds itself walking a tightrope. While Shinde’s 2022 rebellion helped the party reclaim power in Maharashtra without waiting for elections, the long-term sustainability of the alliance is increasingly uncertain.

The entry of Ajit Pawar and his faction of the NCP into the government has only added to the complexity, with three different political brands now co-existing in one coalition: BJP, Shinde Sena, and NCP (Ajit faction).

For the BJP, Shinde is no longer indispensable. Ajit Pawar has brought in significant Maratha and rural support, and Fadnavis remains the party’s tallest face in the state.

So while Delhi may offer Shinde symbolic reassurance, it’s unclear whether that will translate into tangible support—especially if the BJP sees more long-term value in consolidating power through Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar.

Reading the Optics

Visuals from Shinde’s visit—him bowing respectfully to Amit Shah, sitting quietly in waiting rooms, offering prayers at temples—were carefully curated. But what they truly conveyed was a man under pressure.

Unlike earlier visits where Shinde appeared triumphant, this time the atmosphere was far more muted. Political observers noted the absence of big declarations or joint statements, suggesting that the BJP is maintaining a cautious distance.

No matter how spiritual the occasion, Delhi visits by state CMs are rarely without purpose—and even rarer without a message. In this case, the message seems to be: “I’m still here. Don’t forget me.”

What Comes Next?

With the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and state polls looming, Maharashtra’s political scene is only going to get more competitive. Uddhav Thackeray has aligned with Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (Sharad faction), creating a powerful opposition front. BJP is juggling multiple allies with overlapping ambitions.

For Eknath Shinde, survival depends on three immediate goals:

1. Keeping his MLAs loyal through political incentives.

2. Retaining relevance within the BJP-led alliance.

3. Establishing his Sena faction as electorally viable, not just legally legitimate.

If he fails on these fronts, he risks becoming a transitional figure—useful for the BJP during a power grab, but ultimately dispensable.

 Seeking Gurus, or Seeking Guarantees?

Eknath Shinde’s Guru Purnima visit to Delhi may have been cloaked in tradition, but its subtext was political. In a coalition where loyalties are shifting and leadership is under contest, Shinde appears to be making a calculated appeal for support, recognition, and survival.

Whether Delhi answers with assurance—or calculated indifference—will shape not only his future but also the balance of power in Maharashtra’s ever-shifting political chessboard.

For now, Shinde’s prayers are in Delhi. But his real test remains in Mumbai.