Why BJP Keeps Losing in Punjab Despite a Decent Vote Share

Despite being the ruling party at the Centre with a massive political machine and resources at its disposal, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continues to struggle in Punjab. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections once again highlighted the paradox of BJP’s performance in the state: a respectable vote share but almost no seats to show for it.

This disconnect between the BJP’s vote count and actual seat victories isn’t new — it’s part of a longer trend in Punjab, where political equations are more complex than just national popularity. To understand why the BJP remains in the political wilderness in Punjab, one must look at the interplay of regional identity, religious sensitivities, coalition collapse, agrarian politics, and a changing voter psyche.

From Alliance to Isolation: The Fallout with Akali Dal

For decades, the BJP rode piggyback in Punjab through its alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). The coalition allowed BJP to focus on urban Hindu-majority seats while SAD mobilized rural and Sikh voters. It was a mutually beneficial arrangement, especially during NDA governments.

However, the breakdown of this alliance in 2020 — triggered by the BJP’s push for the now-repealed farm laws — proved to be a turning point. The SAD, sensing political damage due to rural outrage, walked out of the alliance, leaving the BJP without its traditional support structure in Punjab.

The separation exposed BJP’s limited grassroots presence in rural areas and its dependency on Akali machinery for mobilization and narrative building. Contesting alone, BJP now faces hostility in rural constituencies and distrust among a large section of the Sikh population.

The Farmers’ Protest Backlash

The 2020–21 farmers’ protests dealt a particularly heavy blow to the BJP’s credibility in Punjab. Thousands of farmers — primarily from Punjab and Haryana — camped on Delhi’s borders for over a year demanding repeal of the three agricultural laws passed by the Modi government.

While the government eventually rolled back the laws, the political damage was done. Farmers saw the move as a betrayal, and the BJP was widely perceived as anti-farmer and anti-Punjab. Even today, BJP candidates find it difficult to campaign openly in many villages without facing protests.

This perception still lingers, especially among Jat Sikh farmers, a key demographic in Punjab’s rural heartland. The BJP’s urban image and centralizing policies are seen as being at odds with Punjab’s federal aspirations and agrarian sensitivities.

Limited Social Coalition

The BJP has traditionally drawn its strength in Punjab from urban Hindu voters, particularly among trading communities in cities like Amritsar, Ludhiana, Jalandhar, and Pathankot. However, this limited base cannot deliver enough seats in a state where rural constituencies dominate.

Moreover, BJP’s nationalist and Hindutva rhetoric doesn’t translate well in Punjab’s pluralistic, Sikh-majority context. Even within the urban Hindu community, the appeal of BJP is not uniform — especially when local issues and community concerns dominate electoral debates.

Without a strong Dalit outreach, a pan-Sikh strategy, or credible rural faces, the BJP is unable to stitch together a broad social coalition in the state.

The AAP and Congress Factor

The rise of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the continued presence of the Congress have also squeezed the BJP’s space. While AAP appeals to aspirational voters and positions itself as a governance-focused alternative, the Congress still retains legacy networks and loyalty in parts of the state.

In many seats, voters see the contest as a two-party or three-party race between AAP, Congress, and sometimes SAD — with BJP trailing far behind. Even where BJP improves its vote share, it often fails to convert these into wins due to the first-past-the-post system, where fragmented votes benefit parties with concentrated support.

In other words, BJP’s support is wide but shallow — not deep enough in any one constituency to secure a victory.

Identity Politics in Punjab

Punjab has a strong regional identity, shaped by language, religion, and culture. Nationalist appeals that work in Hindi-speaking heartlands don’t resonate the same way in Punjab. The memory of events like Operation Bluestar, the anti-Sikh riots of 1984, and decades of insurgency have created a deep mistrust of centralized narratives, especially among Sikhs.

Attempts to impose uniformity, cultural nationalism, or policies that appear to undermine state autonomy often backfire. Even symbolic gestures — such as sidelining Sikh representation or ignoring Punjabi language demands — are seen as politically tone-deaf.

While BJP has made efforts to showcase Sikh faces in its campaigns, these are often seen as tokenistic unless backed by genuine policy commitments and inclusive narratives.

Lack of Strong Local Leadership

Unlike in states like Uttar Pradesh or Gujarat, the BJP in Punjab lacks charismatic, mass-based leaders with statewide appeal. Most of its current leadership is urban-centric, and few have the clout to influence voters across caste and community lines.

This vacuum of leadership limits the party’s ability to build trust at the grassroots. Even attempts to rope in influential Sikh leaders or field “clean image” candidates haven’t significantly altered voter sentiment.

Without local credibility, national faces like Prime Minister Modi or Amit Shah have limited traction beyond symbolic influence.

Attempted Course Corrections — Too Little, Too Late?

In recent elections, BJP has tried various strategies to gain ground:

• Focusing on border security and nationalism

• Highlighting development schemes and industrial corridors

• Reaching out to Dalits in Doaba region

• Pitching “New Punjab” vs. dynastic politics

However, these strategies often come across as externally imposed rather than locally rooted. Voters tend to prioritize employment, agriculture, drug issues, and social harmony — areas where BJP hasn’t built a strong narrative in the state.

The lack of alliance partners and the dominance of regional issues have meant that BJP is still viewed as an outsider — a perception that is difficult to change in a state that values cultural pride and local identity.

The Road Ahead: Can BJP Build Relevance in Punjab?

For the BJP to transition from being vote-gainers to seat-winners in Punjab, it will need to:

• Rebuild trust with farmers and rural voters

• Develop a genuine Sikh outreach program with long-term investment

• Strengthen grassroots cadre and develop local leadership

• Craft a Punjab-specific narrative, avoiding one-size-fits-all messaging

• Explore alliances with emerging or local parties to break isolation

Until then, the party may continue to poll decent vote shares but remain seatless, as fragmented opposition and identity-based voting patterns dominate the state’s electoral arithmetic.

Punjab remains a political puzzle for the BJP. Despite its national dominance, the party continues to struggle for relevance in a state that marches to a different political beat. Until it addresses deeper social, cultural, and historical disconnects, it may find itself with plenty of votes — but no seats.